When Does the US Become a Net Importer of Tokens?
With AI demand outpacing supply and domestic data center construction slowing, the US is projected to become a net importer of tokens between 2028 and 2030, depending on how many planned facilities are cancelled. Current systems plus new data centers can handle roughly 2.5x annual token growth, and imports begin by 2028 if 45% of planned projects fail to connect, by 2029 at 20% cancellations, or by 2030 even if every proposed facility is built on time. The piece notes that demand has been price-inelastic so far, with short-term GPU rental prices rising from $5 to more than $13 per hour over two quarters while buyers kept paying.